Just Checking in

Looking back at our blog posts on the economy and markets in The Library, you could be forgiven for thinking that we only feel the need to get our thoughts out there when the market stinks.  While there is some truth to that, let this post prove that we are not just “defenders” of the […]

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Fireside chat with Don Rissmiller

This morning the Monarchians had the pleasure of hosting Don Rissmiller, chief economist of Strategas, in our offices.  Our relationship with Strategas goes back more than 4 years, and we have the luxury of at least 1 of their 5 analysts (as well as Jason Trennert) visiting us every year. We wanted to share some […]

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What Has Changed Since Last Week?

If we posed this question to Yahoo! Answers, we already know the best answer we could get:  “Depends on who you ask!”  The market’s volatility has caused us all to craft reasons for the volatility.  An 18% correction (since the recent peak in late April) demands not just reasons, but big reasons. How volatile has […]

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The Impact on Countries Downgraded from AAA

  You could be forgiven for believing the media hype recently concerning S&P’s downgrade of U.S. debt from AAA to AA+.  It sounds believable!  If we’re no longer AAA, we can no longer serve as the world’s reserve currency, so everyone will dump our bonds.  As selling overwhelms buying, bond prices fall, and bond yields […]

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What Happened to the Economy?

In just two weeks, investors have moved on from its concern du jour, a potential U.S. debt default, to the next concern, a potential downgrade to U.S. debt, to a 3rd fear:  recession.  Two weeks!  Mr. Market is known for acting emotionally, but this is a special fickleness.  After scolding Washington for not cutting spending […]

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Default vs. Downgrade

The acrimony in Washington over raising the debt ceiling has made for interesting (albeit depressing) political theater.  As the parties have repeatedly failed to agree on every budget austerity deal, and with rating agencies breathing down their necks, there is good reason to be a little fearful of what will transpire in the next week. […]

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“The Yes-Yes Stock Market.”

Barron’s Article ~ “The Yes-Yes Stock Market” Monarch Commentary It is a pervasive, skeptical opinion among investors that the Fed is largely responsible for the +100% bull run in stocks.  Surely the Fed has played a big role in helping to instigate, even incentivize, asset price inflation.  Prices of virtually every asset class have risen […]

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Japan

The earthquake and tsunami in Japan are enormous human tragedies, and our hearts are very heavy as we try to comprehend it all.  There are so many ripple effects that won’t be revealed until much later, but it seems clear that there will be a short-term global economic effect from the disaster.  Our companies sell […]

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Confidence

While the range of things that people are worried about is about as wide as the ocean, and as plentiful as grains of sand, everyone can come together united in worrying about two common subjects:  1) is the economy growing anymore, and 2) what will make it grow? The “bear” case on the economy has […]

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What the?

In case you were wondering whether your eyes were deceiving you, yes, the market did plummet this afternoon before recovering.  At its lowest point, the Dow was down 1,000 points before quickly rallying.  The Dow closed at 10,520, down only 347 points.  It appears that technical trading was responsible for the sudden falloff around 2:30pm […]

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