Default vs. Downgrade

The acrimony in Washington over raising the debt ceiling has made for interesting (albeit depressing) political theater.  As the parties have repeatedly failed to agree on every budget austerity deal, and with rating agencies breathing down their necks, there is good reason to be a little fearful of what will transpire in the next week. …

Default vs. Downgrade Read More »

Japan

The earthquake and tsunami in Japan are enormous human tragedies, and our hearts are very heavy as we try to comprehend it all.  There are so many ripple effects that won’t be revealed until much later, but it seems clear that there will be a short-term global economic effect from the disaster.  Our companies sell …

Japan Read More »

Confidence

While the range of things that people are worried about is about as wide as the ocean, and as plentiful as grains of sand, everyone can come together united in worrying about two common subjects:  1) is the economy growing anymore, and 2) what will make it grow? The “bear” case on the economy has …

Confidence Read More »

What the?

In case you were wondering whether your eyes were deceiving you, yes, the market did plummet this afternoon before recovering.  At its lowest point, the Dow was down 1,000 points before quickly rallying.  The Dow closed at 10,520, down only 347 points.  It appears that technical trading was responsible for the sudden falloff around 2:30pm …

What the? Read More »

Welcome to Spring!

For those of us who really like spring, and those of us who are weather geeks, the “meteorological calendar” indicates that spring begins on March 1, not March 20 (as the solar calendar indicates).  This especially makes sense when you ask:  which period seems more like it should be in winter, December 1-20, or March …

Welcome to Spring! Read More »

Welcome to the 2007 Recession

You might have noticed a lot of haranguing lately in the media about “recessionary concerns.”  In September and October, it seemed everyday we were confronted with headlines such as “Market drops 777 points on fears of possible recession.”  As logical as this might sound, we were convinced that the recession probably started long ago, and …

Welcome to the 2007 Recession Read More »

Temporary Insanity

While we wonder whether the market has completely lost its mind, or is merely temporarily insane, we look to some of our favorite quantitative indicators for some degree of comfort. One word of caution, as always:  nothing, even the best-looking numbers ever, can tell us when the malaise in the market will end.  These should …

Temporary Insanity Read More »