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What Happened to the Economy?

In just two weeks, investors have moved on from its concern du jour, a potential U.S. debt default, to the next concern, a potential downgrade to U.S. debt, to a 3rd fear:  recession.  Two weeks!  Mr. Market is known for acting emotionally, but this is a special fickleness.  After scolding Washington for not cutting spending […]

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Default vs. Downgrade

The acrimony in Washington over raising the debt ceiling has made for interesting (albeit depressing) political theater.  As the parties have repeatedly failed to agree on every budget austerity deal, and with rating agencies breathing down their necks, there is good reason to be a little fearful of what will transpire in the next week. […]

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“The Yes-Yes Stock Market.”

Barron’s Article ~ “The Yes-Yes Stock Market” Monarch Commentary It is a pervasive, skeptical opinion among investors that the Fed is largely responsible for the +100% bull run in stocks.  Surely the Fed has played a big role in helping to instigate, even incentivize, asset price inflation.  Prices of virtually every asset class have risen […]

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Japan

The earthquake and tsunami in Japan are enormous human tragedies, and our hearts are very heavy as we try to comprehend it all.  There are so many ripple effects that won’t be revealed until much later, but it seems clear that there will be a short-term global economic effect from the disaster.  Our companies sell […]

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Confidence

While the range of things that people are worried about is about as wide as the ocean, and as plentiful as grains of sand, everyone can come together united in worrying about two common subjects:  1) is the economy growing anymore, and 2) what will make it grow? The “bear” case on the economy has […]

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What the?

In case you were wondering whether your eyes were deceiving you, yes, the market did plummet this afternoon before recovering.  At its lowest point, the Dow was down 1,000 points before quickly rallying.  The Dow closed at 10,520, down only 347 points.  It appears that technical trading was responsible for the sudden falloff around 2:30pm […]

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Welcome to Spring!

For those of us who really like spring, and those of us who are weather geeks, the “meteorological calendar” indicates that spring begins on March 1, not March 20 (as the solar calendar indicates).  This especially makes sense when you ask:  which period seems more like it should be in winter, December 1-20, or March […]

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Current State of the Market….Welcome to September!

Welcome to September!  The meteorological calendar suggests that summer is now over, but given the weather this summer, most of us are probably interested in when summer will begin! More ominously, as many of you have likely heard, September is historically the worst month for the stock market.  Crashes usually occur in October, but they […]

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What to do with this rally?

Unless you stopped watching the news during the agonizing bear market, and haven’t yet turned it back on, you probably know that stocks have recovered quite nicely since hitting an intraday low on March 6, at 666 for the S&P 500 (mark of the bears, or of the Beast?).  The next trading day, March 9, […]

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Welcome to the 2007 Recession

You might have noticed a lot of haranguing lately in the media about “recessionary concerns.”  In September and October, it seemed everyday we were confronted with headlines such as “Market drops 777 points on fears of possible recession.”  As logical as this might sound, we were convinced that the recession probably started long ago, and […]

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