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Quarterly Newsletter April 1, 2016

How Persistent Investing Can Generate Lollapalooza Results                         “Wealth is largely the result of habit.”                                                 – John Jacob Astor (1763-1848) Bank accounts and interest-bearing securities (bonds) have not been very profitable lately.  Is it too dangerous to keep most your savings in […]

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Time to Revisit the Lows

You might be thinking that watching stock prices fall nearly everyday is starting to get old. We agree.  And here’s a reason to take some measure of satisfaction:  you’re actually right!  As you can see on the chart above, the S&P 500 continues to make round-trips down to this 1812-1860 range.  This is, in fact, […]

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What’s Up With This Market?

So, the market is off to a less-than-stellar start to the year, to put it mildly. In fact, stocks endured the worst first week ever, with the S&P down 6% last week. Naturally, everyone wants to know what it means for the rest of the year, so here it is, the good, bad, and ugly. […]

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Quarterly Newsletter January 4, 2016

As some of you may know I am an avid fan of Adam Smith. I have often quoted from his book Wealth of Nations which was written in 1776, 239 years ago. As I was starting to put this newsletter together I saw the following quote from Adam Smith’s other major book The Theory of […]

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Quarterly Newsletter October 1, 2015

Why is it Called a Correction When it Feels So Wrong? The correction is finally here! The moment investors and fund managers have been waiting for. Finally, they can put to work all that cash sitting on the sidelines. Hallelujah, happy days. But first, have you ever stopped to ponder why the word “correction” is […]

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Well, We Were Due

Waiting for the ephemeral correction has been like waiting for Godot.  Okay, so maybe it’s been more like waiting for your next dentist appointment (apologies to all dentists) or colonoscopy.  You knew it wasn’t going to be fun, and you knew the time would come eventually.  While painful in the short-term, they make the patient […]

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Quarterly Newsletter July 1, 2015

Thinking about the next 5 years, we wonder what will happen to inflation and interest rates.  As you know, the Federal Reserve has held rates down close to 0% for an extended period of time to stimulate the economy.  The graph below shows the 90-day Treasury bill yield, the 10-year Treasury bond yield, and the […]

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Quarterly Newsletter April 1, 2015

In Life on the Mississippi, Mark Twain tells of thriving 19th-century towns booming with riverboat freight and passenger traffic, that suddenly found themselves stranded – and ruined – when the mighty, meandering, unpredictable river flooded, and the channel made a short cut across a loop, moving several miles away and bypassing the little town completely. […]

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Quarterly Newsletter January 1, 2015

We have had quite a ride over the past 5+ years with the Dow Industrials going from 6,500 to roughly 18,000 today.  As you know, we lay no claim to market clairvoyance, but common sense (which we do lay some claim to) would suggest it might be a good time to lighten up a bit.  […]

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Santa’s List, 2014 Edition

While stocks have dropped “only” 5% in the most recent market swoon, it seems a lot worse.  Volatility has sharply increased, and world markets are seeing a lot more collateral damage than they have in a long time.  Russia’s stock market and currency are collapsing, junk bonds are losing big money, and of course, energy […]

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